Wednesday, May 11, 2011

Some thoughts on the 26th ...

With less than two weeks to go before the special election in NY's 26th Congressional District, things are REALLY heating up.

First, we've got an endorsement of Jack Davis by David Bellavia ... and an unendorsement of Jack Davis by Bob Lonsberry. We've got Jack whining that the girls are being mean to him. And Ian Murphy being uninvited from a Channel 2 News debate. We've got Jane Corwin bringing Speaker John Boehner in to stump for her. And none other than Donald Trump saying if Jane loses the election, it's Rep. Paul Ryan's fault.

It's all very hard to keep up with. But, gosh, it is a LOT of fun.

It would seem to me like the Bellavia endorsement could give Jack Davis the few points he needs to make this a three-way horse race. The most recent polls have Jane Corwin leading Kathy Hochul and Davis by 36-31-23 ... and then Hochul leading Corwin and Davis by nearly the same figure 35-31-24. If Jack takes three points from each of those candidates, it's 32-28-30, which would put the whole thing within the margin of error. Keep in mind, Davis IS pulling from both candidates, so my theory there is plausible.

This past weekend, Erie County Comptroller Mark Poloncarz, who at one point was considered a leading candidate to be the Democrat in the 26th race, announced he'd be running for Erie County Executive against Chris Collins.

I can't help but wonder why Poloncarz would make his announcement with two weeks to go in the special election. He couldn't have waited just a few weeks? Could his announcement take any wind out of Hochul's sails? Or is he hoping she has some coat tails of some sort? Will they be campaigning together over the next couple weeks? I really just don't get it. Any clues would be appreciated.


Thirteen days. It's bound to be interesting.